Game Preview: Creighton

The Bluejays are 12-3 and are also coming off a loss, falling to Butler last time out. All three of Creighton’s losses have come against teams ranked in the top 20 in KenPom: Michigan (19), San Diego State (16), and Butler (5). The Bluejays beat Villanova’s last opponent, Marquette, by 17 on New Year’s Day. They also hold top 50 KenPom wins over Texas Tech (22) and Oklahoma (48).

Creighton is currently ranked No. 41 in KenPom, 16th offensively and 90th defensively.

The offense has been powered by good shooting and taking care of the ball. The Bluejays rank 27th in effective field goal percentage, 50th in two-point percentage, 53rd in three-point percentage, and 28th in turnover percentage. They don’t do a ton of damage on the offensive glass, ranking just 301st in offensive rebound percentage, and they haven’t gotten to the line a ton.

Defensively, Creighton has been slightly above average defending the three-point line but post average numbers on overall field goal percentage. They don’t force a lot of turnovers, ranking 246th in opponent’s turnover percentage and don’t block a lot of shots, ranking 306th in block percentage.

Marcus Zegarowski leads the way with 18.1 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. Ty-Shon Alexander adds 16.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. Mitch Ballock chips in 12.6 points and 5.4 rebounds while Denzel Mahoney rounds out the double-figure scorers with 10.8 points.

Damien Jefferson chips in 8.6 points and 5.3 rebounds and Christian Bishop adds 8.5 points and 5.7 rebounds. Kevin Jones (4.0 points) and Shereef Mitchell (3.7) round out the group of players getting at least 10 minutes per game.

Creighton ranks in the 97th percentile offensively with 0.986 points per possession, per Synergy Sports.

The Bluejays have excelled in spot-up situations, in transition, and using the pick and roll ballhandler. They’ve also been good using cuts and screens and decent in isolation and using the roll man in the pick and roll. They rank “average” or better in every single play type Synergy tracks, with post-ups and offensive rebounding being their “weakest” play types.

Individually, the leading scorer trio of Zegarowski, Alexander, and Ballock lead the way with “excellent” rankings. All three have been very good in spot-ups as well as in transition. They are also good ballhandling in the pick and roll and Alexander has had success in isolation.

The entire lineup receives a solid ranking from Synergy, but opponents would most like to see the offense go through Jefferson, Mitchell, Mahoney, or Jones. Unfortunately, those four players combined to make up less than 20 percent of the offense. With three truly dangerous options, it’s very hard for opponents to dictate to the Creighton offense.

Defensively, things aren’t as impressive. Creighton is allowing 0.85 PPP, ranking in the 53rd percentile.

They’ve done a decent job defending the pick and roll, isolations, screens, and handoffs. They’ve struggled with spot-ups, in transition, in the post, on the defensive glass, and with cuts.

Ballock, Jefferson, and Jones have rated as the poorest individual defenders while Alexander and Mitchell have been the best.

Looking at Creighton’s three losses in an attempt to find patterns, we notice that they were held below 42.5 percent shooting in all three, and under 40 percent twice. The Bluejays also lost the three-point battle in each of their three losses and shot under 35 percent from deep in all three and under 20 percent in two. They also attempted fewer free-throws than the opponent in two of the three and lost the rebounding battle in two of three. I don’t know that there’s any monumental information there, but it appears the three-point line will be quite important.

Tuesday night will certainly present a challenge for Villanova defensively and I don’t envy Jay Wright’s job of having to figure out how to slow the Bluejays. Defending the perimeter will certainly be a key.

Offensively, I’d like to see the ‘Cats run a bit more. Creighton has been susceptible to transition and getting out on the break could also be a way to help ‘Nova find its way to the free-throw line more often. The Wildcats missed some really good looks against Marquette and those misses impacted the game, and that’s something that could repeat itself Tuesday. ‘Nova should be able to generate decent looks they just need to knock them down at a better clip.

After two games of conference play, it’s pretty clear that the Big East is going to be absolutely brutal night in and night out. Every game is going to have implications. Falling behind the back early could prove costly as there are just no gimmies anywhere in the schedule to help you climb back in. With each loss, your margin for error becomes thinner, and that’s not a good place to be in a conference like this year’s Big East. Adding to the importance of tonight’s game is the fact that the teams that are able to find some road wins in the conference are likely the ones who will be at the top of the standings come March.

So, Villanova is facing a tough test in a difficult environment in a game that is as about as important as an early January game can be, all while coming off a difficult loss. It will be fascinating to see how the ‘Cats respond. Tipoff is scheduled for 9 PM on FS1.