Tonight, Villanova gets its first look at Creighton. The Bluejays come in with a 17-5 overall record and a 7-3 mark in the Big East.

Creighton sits right behind ‘Nova and Xavier in the Big East standings, a game ahead of Seton Hall. All three of the Bluejays conference losses (Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence) have come on the road. They’ve been the beneficiary of already playing two games apiece with conference basement dwellers St. John’s and Georgetown but hold a notable conference win against Butler.

The Bluejays had an impressive 10-2 mark in the non-conference, but lost their two toughest challenges during that stretch, against Baylor and Gonzaga. The Bulldogs, who ‘Nova beat by 16, defeated Creighton by 17. More problematic for Creighton is the fact that their two best non-conference wins don’t look as good as they did at the time (No. 20 Northwestern, No. 23 UCLA).

Regardless, Creighton appears on the way to an NCAA tournament berth.

The Bluejays are solid offensively, boasting the sixth-best scoring offense at 85.6 points per game. They rank 21st in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Creighton has been decent from deep and have been lethal inside of it.

Creighton is powered by its backcourt of Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, who average 19.9 and 14.6 points per game respectively. Each shoot better than 50% from the floor, and Foster has hit 45% of his threes. 6-10 forward Toby Hegner chips in 10.1 points and can step out to the perimeter, shooting 44% from deep.

The Bluejays are most effective when spotting up, getting out in transition, and when hitting the roll man in the pick and roll. They don’t grab a ton of offensive rebounds, but they are efficient converting the ones they do get.

Like Villanova, Creighton is dealing with an injury issue, as sophomore Martin Krampelj is out for the season with a torn ACL. He was averaging 11.9 points and leading the team with 8.1 rebounds.

Defensively, Creighton has been decent. The Bluejays check in at 43 in defensive efficiency and surrender 72.9 points per game.

They have done well defending shooters and in the post. They have struggled defending cutters. But their biggest problem on defense is an inability to force turnovers. Creighton ranks 329th in turnover percentage, getting a turnover on just 15.8% of possessions. Part of the problem is that they simply don’t get a lot of steals, averaging just five per game.

Creighton comes into the game with a slight advantage on the boards, 38-35.

While Creighton has been okay on the defensive end, Villanova’s offense should be able to score the ball. An inability to force turnovers and steal possessions makes the difficult task of stopping the ‘Nova offense that much more difficult. Villanova has the most efficient offense in the country by a fairly wide margin, and it has a chance to produce the most efficient offense of the KenPom era (since 2002). Creighton has done a good job defending the three-point line, so it will be interesting to see if ‘Nova can get it going from deep.

The Bluejay offense has the talent to pose a threat, but misses Krampelj. Foster and Thomas are the type of players that can take a game over and will garner a lot of attention from the ‘Nova defense.

Offensively, ‘Nova doing what ‘Nova does should be enough. If the ‘Cats just run the offense the way they have all season, they should get the shots they want. Against Marquette on Sunday, ‘Nova did a good job using offense as defense, attacking the potent Golden Eagle backcourt on the offensive end, making them work and getting them into foul trouble. That could prove a useful strategy again on Thursday. Foster and Thomas have been vulnerable in isolation situations, while Thomas has struggled a bit defending the pick and roll and Foster has been beaten by shooters. Finally, not helping the Creighton defense by committing silly turnovers will be key. At the end of the day, the diversity of the ‘Nova offense, the versatility of its athletes, and the precision with which it executes the offense should allow the ‘Cats to score the ball.

Defensively, limiting Foster and Thomas is the obvious key. Foster is good enough to get his points pretty much every time out, so simply keeping him from going bonkers will be acceptable. If both Foster and Thomas get it going, it could turn into a long night. Hegner has stepped up a bit in Krampelj’s absence but isn’t a “carry the load” type of player. Ronnie Harrell Jr. has shown flashes, scoring 18 against Seton Hall, but has been wildly inconsistent, averaging just 7.6 points for the season. Freshman Mitch Ballock has had some moments as well, but he averages only 6.9 points. So Creighton has some guys who have shown an ability to help pick up the slack offensively, but you’re much more comfortable making the Bluejays rely on them rather than letting them compliment Foster and Thomas as the duo leads the way.

The glass is another area to watch. Creighton has a slight advantage on the boards, and while they don’t grab a ton of offensive rebounds, they have been a vacuum on the defensive glass. If ‘Nova finds itself struggling shooting the ball, it will have to work extra hard to get more opportunities at the basket, and if Creighton finds itself hot offensively, you have the ingredients for an upset. Likewise, if ‘Nova is struggling to clean the defensive glass, Creighton can make you pay with extra chances.

‘Nova will be expected to win the game. KenPom predicts a 13-point win for the ‘Cats. Creighton has struggled a bit on the road, especially in the Big East where it is 2-3 away from home. Conversely, the Bluejays are 5-0 at home in conference games. The Bluejays are a good team that would love a signature win. They have the ability to punish a sloppy defensive performance, and ‘Nova has been a bit up and down on that end of the floor. It should be a good test for Villanova as we enter the final month of the regular season.

The game is on FS1 at 6:30.