Game preview: Creighton

Seeing as the Bluejays have only played one game since defeating Villanova, we won’t spend much time on the analytics as any changes in Creighton’s numbers are mostly based on what other teams have done. Instead, we’ll focus on what happened in the previous matchup and what Villanova needs to do differently to get a better outcome.

Several things stand out from the previous meeting between the teams. Many off these things overlap and influence each other, but let’s look at each one individually.

First, Villanova was dominated inside the arc and especially around the rim. Creighton shot 64.7% from 2-point range in that game to Villanova’s 42.5%. Villanova was outrebounded 41-29 and trailed 10-4 in second-chance points. In addition, Creighton built a 42-24 advantage on points in the paint. The Bluejays also had an 8-2 advantage in fast-break points. That’s a lot of easy buckets.

Villanova has rebounded better the last two games and have been making a concerted effort to get inside, and the ‘Cats will have to find some success in those areas to even out the huge advantage Creighton had inside in the first meeting.

The second issue is the most foundational thing in all of basketball: shot making. Overall, Creighton hit 54.5% of its shots to Villanova’s 33.3%. You’re not going to win a lot of games when the opponent shoots 20% better than you from the field. Some of the disparity was a direct result of Creighton’s dominance inside, and some of it was a residual effect of that dominance. The Bluejays’ strong play inside helped open up shots from the outside, creating good looks. As a result, a Creighton team that came into the game shooting 30.3% from beyond the arc hit 39.1% form deep in the game. Meanwhile, Villanova connected on just 17.4% of its long-range attempts, getting outscored by 15 from 3-point range. That simply can’t happen against a team like Creighton.

That brings us to Villanova’s defense. It simply wasn’t good enough in the last meeting against Creighton and as a result the Bluejays got virtually whatever they wanted at the offensive end. The reality is that Creighton has an advantage over Villanova inside and the ‘Cats may not be able to prevent the Bluejays from exploiting it. But they have to try to prevent the gap from being as large as it was in the first meeting between the teams. The perimeter is where we can hope to see a marked improvement from the first game. “Offensively they just isolated us really well and forced us to help and then winded up hitting 3s,” Jay Wright said. “We have to guard a pretty balanced attack led by (Ryan) Hawkins who I think is one the best players in the league.”

Speaking of Hawkins, that brings us to our next point: defending the “trio of Ryans.” The aforementioned Hawkins, along with teammates Ryan Kalkbrenner and Ryan Nembhard, were largely responsible for Creighton’s big win. Hawkins scored a game-high 19 points to go with 11 rebounds, two assists and two steals. He hit 3-6 from 3 and was a game-best +25. Nembhard had 14 points, four assists and three rebounds and was a +23. Kalkbrenner had eight points, nine rebounds and five blocks and was a +24. He’s coming off a 20-point, 12-rebound effort in the win over Marquette. At 7-1, he has the potential to be an absolute nightmare for the ‘Cats. The Bluejays have other players capable of hurting opponents offensively and making an impact on the glass, but if all three of the Ryans have strong games, it is difficult to overcome.

Finally, we need to address ball movement. Villanova managed just four assists in the first game against Creighton, an incredibly low number for a program whose offense is predicated on crisp, smart ball movement. Part of that low number can be attributed to not making shots, but ultimately Creighton did a great job disrupting Villanova and making them uncomfortable. “They were outstanding defensively, really intelligent defensively,” Wright said. “They had a great game plan. We did not share the ball. We didn’t have good spacing.”

There may also have been a bit of a mental component here, as the Wildcats were coming off the worst offensive performance in Wright’s tenure at Villanova in the previous game against Baylor. Wright noted after the game that he felt the players may have been pressing a little bit and trying to do too much individually as everyone wanted to help to pull the ‘Cats out of the offensive funk. That led to some less-than-ideal decision making and contributed to the offense being out of rhythm. However, Wright feels like the team has been doing a better job trusting each other and trusting the offensive scheme over the last two games. “I think these guys really just care about each other and they just really wanted to, just kept thinking, ‘I’ll do it for us right now, I’ll turn it around right now.’ It was all with good intentions and I think that’s why it was easy to identify it and then build on it and I think we’ve gotten better in that area.”

Villanova did a good job taking care of the ball in the first meeting and managed to build an advantage from the free throw line despite Creighton being very good at defending without fouling. The Wildcats will have to try to replicate those successes while gaining an advantage from 3 and trying to mitigate Creighton’s advantage inside.

It will be another tough test, as we’ve already seen what Creighton is capable of, and it will be a very nice win if ‘Nova can pull it off. It will be interesting to see the adjustments and how Villanova responds after what happened in the last meeting.

The game is scheduled for an 8:30 tip on FS1.