Published Jan 21, 2020
Game Preview: Butler
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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@JoshNaso

Tuesday brings yet another big challenge for Villanova as they get back into the Big East schedule, hosting No. 13 Butler. However, the game looks much different today than it did just a week ago.

Butler got off to an impressive 9-0 start and ran its record all the way to 15-1 with the lone loss coming in a narrow one-point defeat at the hands of Baylor. The Bulldogs climbed all the way to No. 5 in the rankings and looked like they may be the biggest threat to claim the Big East title. But Butler suffered consecutive losses last week, to Seton Hall and DePaul, allowing ‘Nova to pass it in the conference standings and falling eight spots in the rankings.

Still, the Bulldogs remain a formidable opponent and Tuesday’s game will be huge in determining the Big East hierarchy.

Butler has gotten things done at the defensive end. The Bulldogs surrender just 57.1 points per game, ranking 5th in the country. They are averaging 68.7 points per game and are shooting 47.1 percent from the floor and 35.6 percent from three.

Six Bulldogs get at least 20 minutes per game, with three more getting at least 11 minutes.

Kamar Baldwin leads the way with 15.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. Sean McDermott rounds out the double-figure scorers with 11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds while connecting on 42.2 percent from deep.

Jordan Tucker adds 9.6 points and 3.9 rebounds, Bryce Nze 9.3 points and 6.7 rebounds, Bryce Golden 7.8 points and 3.7 rebounds, and Aaron Thompson 6.7 points, 5.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. Derrik Smits (4.3 points, 2.1 rebounds), Khalif Battle (3.4 points) and Christian David (2.8 points) round out the main rotation pieces.

While the foundation for the Bulldogs is defense, they post decent offensive numbers on KenPom as well. They rank 11th overall in KenPom, checking in at No. 26 offensively and No. 17 defensively.

Looking at the offensive numbers, we see Butler has been able to be efficient, ranking 29th in two-point percentage and 76th in three-point percentage. The Bulldogs have also taken care of the ball reasonably well.

Defensively, the numbers are even more impressive. Butler checks in at No. 7 in three-point defense, No. 40 in two-point defense, and No. 12 in opponent’s offensive rebound percentage. Interestingly, the Bulldogs haven’t created a ton of turnovers, ranking in the middle of the pack in opponent’s turnover percentage and just 297th in steal percentage.

Per Synergy Sports, Butler ranks in the 84th percentile offensively with 0.941 points per possession.

The majority of the Butler offense comes from spot-ups (21.1 percent, average rating) and the pick and roll (21.8 percent, 15.9 percent ballhandler w/ very good rating, 5.9 percent roll man w/ below average rating). The Bulldogs get out in transition just 10.8 percent of the time but are effective when doing so. Cuts and post-ups are also utilized, and the Bulldogs have been effective in those situations as well. Isolations and screens are less frequent but also effective.

If ‘Nova had a choice, it would like to force the offense to come from Thompson and Battle, who garner average ratings. Baldwin, McDermott, Nze, Tucker, and Golden all rate good, very good, or excellent.

Baldwin and McDermott are the best spot-up players for Butler. Baldwin and Thompson have had success as the pick and roll ballhandler. Nze, Golden, McDermott, David, and Thompson have all been effective as cutters, with Nze and Golden getting most of the opportunities. Nze and Smits have been good in the post, and Butler also has the ability to invert the offense with Baldwin working in the post. Baldwin and Thompson are the biggest threats in isolation, while McDermott and Tucker have had success off screens.

Defensively, Butler ranks in the 96th percentile, surrendering 0.771 points per possession.

The Bulldogs have done a great job defending the pick and roll, limiting teams in transition, and guarding the post. They’ve also been good in isolation and defending shooters. They’ve been most susceptible to cuts and screens.

Thompson and Golden have been the best individual defenders, with Baldwin and McDermott not far behind. Nze, David, Tucker, and Battle have graded the poorest individually.

As far as play types, McDermott, Baldwin, Tucker, Nze, and David are the players to try to attack with spot-ups. McDermott and Thompson have struggled with screens while Tucker has had issues with the pick and roll ballhandler and in isolation and Nze has had struggles in the post. Thompson has also been susceptible to handoffs.

It will be interesting to see if ‘Nova tries to pick at the individual weaknesses or just tries to rely on execution of its general offense.

70 could be the magic number for Villanova. It will be tough to get there, but Butler is 0-2 when allowing 70 points.

Looking for other similarities in Butler’s losses, the Bulldogs were even in or lost turnovers in all three losses. They were outscored from three in all three losses and outscored from the foul line in two of the three. Butler has sent the opponent to the line an average of 22.6 times per game in its three losses while getting to the line just 16 times per game itself.

As a result, those are some things we’ll be keeping an eye on Tuesday: who is getting the better of things beyond the arc, how is the free-throw situation developing, what the turnover margin is, and whether Villanova is managing a 70-point pace.

Villanova isn’t catching Butler at a great time with the Bulldogs coming off consecutive losses. They should be focused and hungry to get back on track, and there’s no better way to do that than getting a road win over the No. 9 team in the country.

For the Wildcats, it’s both a great challenge and a great opportunity. The win would look great on their resume and would put them two games clear of Butler in the conference standings while keeping them in sole possession of second place in the Big East. It’s imperative for ‘Nova to protect the home court, and it will be interesting to see how they respond to the challenge.