Villanova will look to run its winning streak to six games Sunday when it hosts Butler at the Wells Fargo Center.
Butler comes in with a 9-6 record and a 2-2 record in the Big East. While the won-lost record isn’t particularly impressive, it’s worth noting that all six of the losses have come against top 56 KenPom teams, with five of the six coming against KenPom top 30 teams. The Bulldogs also earned a true road win at Oklahoma (33rd in KenPom), so they can hang with quality teams.
“This Butler team has always been a tough team for us,” Jay Wright said. “They’re very physical. This is a tough team that I think is just starting to come into their own.”
Offense has been a struggle for Butler, who average just 64 points per game. The Bulldogs have connected on just 30.9% of their 3-point attempts and sit middle-of-the-pack hitting an even 50% on 2-point tries. They don’t get to the free throw line a ton and have turned the ball over on 20.2% of their possessions. As a result, they’ve been held under 60 points six times. Butler is 1-5 when scoring under 60 and 8-1 when scoring 60+.
Things have been a bit better on the defensive side, where the Bulldogs give up 62.3 points per game. They have defended the 3 well, with opponents hitting just 30.9% from deep. They’ve also done a decent job of keeping opponents off the offensive glass despite not rebounding well overall (just 32 per game). Butler has had some difficulty defending around the rim, however.
Much of Villanova’s play since suffering back-to-back 20-point losses to Baylor and Creighton can be traced to physicality. With that physicality, the Wildcats have seen a huge improvement on the glass that has been a major factor in the recent play. The ‘Cats have also shown more consistent play on the defensive end and a concerted effort to get inside offensively.
“It’s been big,” Wright said of the improvement on the boards. “Because we haven’t been shooting the ball great. But we’ve done a good job on the offensive glass, and we’ve done a good job defensively. One of the big parts of defense is finishing a defensive possession with a rebound. You can do a lot of great things defensively but if you don’t finish the possession with a rebound, it’s not a good possession. I think we’ve been doing a good job of that, and I think it’s been crucial in our team’s improvement.”
“That’s one of our core principles, rebounding and being tough,” Justin Moore said. “In the Big East you’re playing against big teams and physical teams down low. That’s something we work in practice, being physical, being tough. Not only the bigs rebounding but the guards getting down there and rebounding, that’s something we’ve been working on.”
Those factors loom large again on Sunday. This is one of the few games where Villanova will enter with a rebounding advantage on paper, and the Wildcats will need to carry that over to the game and continue the strong rebounding of the past five games. It will also be interesting to see if the ‘Cats can continue to build advantages from 2-point range, especially in the paint. The weak spot of the Butler defense appears to be around the rim, so Villanova should be able to continue its aggressive inside approach and find an advantage.
Bryce Golden leads the way with 10.4 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s been the Bulldogs’ best 3-point shooter at 40.9%. Chuck Harris adds 10.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Jair Bolden rounds out the double figure scorers with 10.1 points, adding 2.1 rebounds and 1.1 assists. He’s hit 35.8% from 3.
Jayden Taylor is just shy of double figures at 9.9 points per game. He adds 2.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists. Bryce Nze chips in 8.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Aaron Thompson averages 7.7 points, a team-high 4.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.8 steals. Ty Groce (6.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG) and Simas Lukosius (4.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG) round out the players playing 18+ minutes per game.
Butler has been one of the few teams that has been able to find even a semblance of consistent success against Villanova recently and this iteration of the team is a senior-laden group that has been through the battles with Villanova and has experienced some of that success.
“They have a unique way of playing extremely physical and extremely intelligent,” Wright said. “That combination is extremely rare in college basketball. It has given us trouble. Their toughness, their physicality…we have struggled with that at times. So, we gotta be prepared for that and I think they’re playing really well right now.”
“They’re a tough team, they drive the ball hard so we gotta be physical and stop them from getting in the paint and making drives,” Moore added. “We gotta continue to be tough and physical down low.”
The game is scheduled for a noon tip and will air on FS1.