Villanova faces another incredibly difficult test on Sunday when it travels to Baylor to take on the No. 2 Bears.
Baylor enters with an 8-0 record, having won seven of its eight games by double figures and four of the eight by 20+ points. The only knock on the Bears through the early part of the season might be strength of schedule, as they have only faced four top 100 KenPom teams with the best win coming over 21st ranked Michigan State. They’ve also beaten No. 87 Stanford, No. 94 VCU and No. 100 Arizona State.
KenPom ranks the Bears No. 3 (5th offensively, 9th defensively). The metric shows the Bears have shot the ball reasonably well, especially from 2-point range. They’ve also been a force on the offensive glass, ranking 5th in offensive rebound percentage at 41.2%. Defensively, Baylor has been elite forcing turnovers, ranking third by forcing turnovers on 28.2% of opponent’s possessions. The Bears have defended well from both 2-point and 3-point range and have also kept opponents off the offensive glass.
Haslametrics ranks Baylor No. 6 overall (8th offensively, 17th defensively). That metric shows the Bears converting at an elite rate on near-proximity shots and performing respectively from 3-point range. Baylor has been elite at getting up shot attempts, bolstered by the lack of turnovers committed offensively, forcing turnovers defensively and that elite offensive rebounding. Defensively, the Bears have limited the number of shots opponents take, another effect of forcing turnovers.
Looking at the counting stats, Baylor averages 84 points per game while surrendering 56.4. The Bears grab 42 rebounds per game while hitting 48.3% of their shots overall and 34.7% from 3. One offensive weakness for Baylor has been the free throw line, where it has converted just 65.6% of its attempts.
Sophomore guard LJ Cryer leads the way for the Bears with 15.4 points per game, hitting 54.1% from the field and 47.9% from 3. He adds two rebounds, 2.1 assists and one steal.
Freshman Kendall Brown is listed as a guard but stands at 6-8. Brown was a five-star prospect in 2021 who was ranked No. 11 in the class, and he has made an immediate impact for the Bears. He has averaged 13.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, two assists and 1.5 steals. He’s been incredibly efficient, hitting 71.9% from the field and 57.1% from 3.
Senior Matthew Mayer, another player listed at guard despite standing 6-9, rounds out the double figure scorers for the Bears with 11.6 points per game. He adds 5.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.9 steals. He’s connected on 36.1% from beyond the arc.
Former Georgetown guard James Akinjo chips in 9.9 points, a team-high 6.1 assists, two rebounds and 2.3 steals. He’s hit 36.4% from 3. Junior guard Adam Flagler adds 8.4 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists. Junior forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua averages 8.4 points and 8.3 rebounds. Freshman forward Jeremy Sochan adds 7.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, two assists and 1.3 steals. Senior forward Flo Thamba chips in 5.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals.
Balance is something that really stands out for the Bears. Eight players average at least two rebounds per game, five average at least two assists and six average at least one steal. In addition, four players have hit at least 36% from 3-point range.
Turnovers and rebounds each jump off the page as keys of the game. Number of possessions and having possessions that end with shot attempts will be of prime importance on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams have done well taking care of the ball and at forcing turnovers. Forcing turnovers is a huge part of what Baylor does and has been a key factor in its success. Villanova will have to take care of the ball, and an advantage in the turnover department could serve to shift the outcome of the game.
Baylor has also been able to do damage on the offensive glass. Villanova has been better on the boards over the last four games, and offensive rebounding was a huge factor in the win over Syracuse on Tuesday. The Wildcats will need to continue that success and prevent Baylor from building a big advantage on the glass.
Villanova’s interior defense will be tested with Baylor having had a lot of success around the basket this season. It would be ideal if the Wildcats could force the Bears to rely on mid-range attempts, which has been Baylor’s least efficient area offensively this season.
The 3-point line could be key as well. Both teams have been solid from deep this season, but Villanova has been more successful. If the ‘Cats can build an advantage from deep, it would go a long way towards pulling off the win.
It’s another big challenge for the Wildcats in what has been an impressive non-conference schedule. It’s an opportunity for a marquee win that would be incredibly valuable come March and that could serve as an excellent springboard into Big East play.
The game is scheduled for a 3 p.m. tip and will air on ABC.