Villanova has advanced to the Sweet 16 and will be rewarded with a date with one of the best teams in the country, the Baylor Bears. Baylor is the 1-seed in the region, and it’s not hard to see why.
The Bears started the season 18-0, finished the regular season 21-1, and enter Saturday’s matchup with Villanova with a 24-2 record. Baylor spent the entire season in the top 2 of both polls and rolled into the Sweet 16 with a 24-point win over Hartford and a 13-point win over Wisconsin.
As you would expect, the advanced metrics sites love the Bears. KenPom ranks Baylor No. 2 overall, 3rd offensively and 37th defensively. The Bears also hold the No. 2 spot in the Haslametrics rankings as well, 2nd offensively and 22nd defensively.
A pair of keys to Baylor’s lofty offensive efficiency are shot selection and elite 3-point shooting. Per Haslametrics, Baylor ranks 22nd in near-proximity attempts and shoot 53.5% overall from 2-point range. The Bears are also the best 3-point shooting team in the country at 41.8%. They rank 53rd in 3-point attempt rate, per Haslametrics. A lot of close-range attempts and a lot of 3-point attempts is a great recipe for offensive efficiency, especially when converting at a high rate.
Adding to Baylor’s offensive potency is strong work on the offensive glass, where the Bears pull down 36.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, the sixth-best rate in the country, per KenPom. It all adds up to Baylor scoring 83.8 points per game and owning the third-best effective field goal percentage in the country.
Complicating things for opponents is the fact that it’s not just one or two elite shooters carrying the load. Six Bears shoot better than 38% from 3, and four shoot better than 40%. Simply identifying one or two shooters and selling out to stop them isn’t an option against Baylor.
Jared Butler leads the way for Baylor with 16.9 points per game. He adds 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 41.5% from 3. MaCio Teague adds 16.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. He has hit 39.7% of his 3s. Davion Mitchell rounds out the double-figure scorers for Baylor with 14.1 points to go with 2.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and two steals while hitting 46.1% from 3.
Adam Flagler adds 8.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists to go with 40% 3-point shooting. Matthew Mayer chips in 8.3 points and 3.8 assists while hitting 42.2% from 3.
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua contributes 6.4 points and 5.1 rebounds while Mark Vital adds 5.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals.
Teague, Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Vital have also been terrors on the offensive glass, helping the Bears to their elite offensive rebounding numbers.
“We have some young guys going up against some veteran studs,” Jay Wright said of Baylor’s roster. “Butler, Teague, Mitchell, Flagler, even Meyer, you can almost count him as a guard. It’s not just their talent but their basketball IQ is outstanding. And that’s what happens when guys stay in college for a few years, they really learn the game. This is a really intelligent team as well as extremely talented and we’re gonna have young guys going against them. But they love that. That’s what the young guys want to do, they want to go up against the best and they’re gonna get their shot.”
While the offense stands out, Baylor has been very good defensively as well. The Bears allow just 59 points per game. That is driven largely by their ability to force turnovers. Per KenPom, Baylor ranks third in opponent’s turnover percentage and sixth in steal percentage. As a result, they have been able to limit opponent’s field goal attempts while also turning those turnovers into points at the other end. The Bears have also been able to defend without fouling, avoiding sending opponents to the line.
As impressive as Baylor has been, the Bears don’t come without weaknesses.
They don’t get to the free throw line a lot, and when they do they have struggled to convert, hitting just 69.7%.
As good as Baylor has been on the offensive glass, it has had some issues on the defensive glass. Despite an elite offensive rebounding percentage, the Bears average 36.5 total rebounds per game, a number that is slightly above average. That is because Baylor has allowed opponents to pull down 30.2% of their offensive rebound opportunities, a rate that ranks 261st in the country.
With all of that in mind, here are some things we think will be key to the game.
One will be the free throw line. Baylor doesn’t send opponents to the line particularly often, but it also doesn’t get to the line very much and it has struggled to convert when it does get there. Villanova also does an excellent job of defending without fouling and has been generally good at converting when earning trips to the line. Interestingly, the strongest common factor in Baylor’s two losses was the free throw line. When Kansas beat Baylor, the Jayhawks were +12 from the line while taking 10 more attempts. Similarly, Oklahoma State was +11 from the line with 13 more attempts. This is a spot where there should be an opportunity for Villanova to find an advantage.
Rebounding, and in particular offensive rebounding and second-chance points, will be another key area. If Baylor’s strength on the offensive glass shows through, things tilt the Bears’ direction. However, Villanova has been good on the defensive glass this season. Likewise, if Villanova can exploit Baylor’s struggles on the defensive glass, things could start to lean towards the ‘Cats. Not only has Baylor allowed opponents to grab a high percentage of offensive rebound opportunities, it has also allowed them to convert those opportunities to points fairly regularly. Rebounding was a major factor in Kansas’ win over Baylor, with the Jayhawks outrebounding the Bears by 20 (48-28) and earning a slight advantage on the offensive glass.
We can’t ignore the 3-point line here. Baylor leads the country in 3-point shooting and has six very strong 3-point shooters. Villanova finding a way to defend the arc will be imperative. If Villanova is able to have an advantage from beyond the arc it would be huge, but simply limiting Baylor from 3 would go a long way. Neither Kansas nor Oklahoma State outscored Baylor from beyond the arc, but Kansas held the Bears to 23.1% from 3 while Oklahoma State limited them to 21.4%.
One thing coach Wright would reveal about trying to stop the Bears is the importance of variety. “I don’t think it’s the kind of team that you can just do one thing against these guys, they’re too smart,” Wright said. “We’re gonna have to change it up. And they’ve seen everything. The Big 12 was outstanding this year, there’s great coaches. So, the one thing I can definitely say we’re not gonna do is just go out and do one thing against these guys, they would just slice you.”
Finally, we’ll be watching the strength-on-strength battle in the turnover department. Baylor has been elite at forcing turnovers, while Villanova has been elite at taking care of the ball. If either team can get their strength in the turnover area to show through, it will gain a big advantage on Saturday.
Baylor is an incredibly good team. The Bears have some truly elite strengths at each end of the floor, and there’s a reason why they are so highly regarded by both the polls and the advanced metrics. Still, they have some areas that can be exploited. It will be up to the ‘Cats to execute and play Villanova basketball. If they can do that, an upset win is a possibility.
