If you read our game story on Wednesday’s win over St. John’s, you saw our discussion about the altered dynamic Villanova is facing entering Big East play this year as opposed to years past.
With the early season struggles and some strong teams at the top of the conference, Villanova’s approach to conference play this season is less focused on adding more hardware to the trophy case and more about counting the wins in an effort to ensure an NCAA bid.
Looking at how things stand now, you would think that 14 conference wins (20 overall) would have Villanova feeling reasonably comfortable on Selection Sunday. Any more than that would virtually ensure a bid, while fewer, say 11-13 would have ‘Nova Nation sweating things out.
There are a couple ways this could play out and specific results could impact the exact logistics. For example, if ‘Nova were to get, say, 12 conference wins and sit with an 18-13 record, but four of those wins came against UConn, Xavier, Creighton and Marquette, then ‘Nova would have a better argument than if it had 18 wins but lost twice to those four teams. Of course, going into Selection Sunday with only 18 wins is far from ideal, and stealing wins from the four teams listed will be a tall task. Per KenPom, the ‘Cats are currently projected to go 3-5 in the eight games with those teams.
While quality wins are important and Villanova will likely have to secure at least a few to put together a compelling resume, getting 13 or 14 conference wins and 19 or 20 overall wins would leave everyone feeling much more secure. If Villanova were able to go 3-5 against those four previously mentioned teams, it would need 10 or 11 wins from the rest of the schedule.
With that in mind, let’s return to KenPom. KenPom projects Villanova to go 11-9 in conference play, which obviously isn’t enough. So, where are some projected losses where Villanova could have a legitimate chance to steal one? Here are four games that could decide Villanova’s season.
Friday, January 13, at Butler
KenPom currently ranks Butler 79th and projects this game as a one-point loss for Villanova despite the Wildcats sitting 26 spots ahead of the Bulldogs in KenPom’s rankings. Butler has also played the No. 51 and No. 52 teams in KenPom, (Kansas State and N.C. State, respectively), beating K-State by eight and losing to N.C. State by 15. The Bulldogs also played KenPom’s No. 34 team (Penn State) close, falling by six points. Overall, Butler is 3-3 against the KenPom top 100. Of course, playing in Hinkle Fieldhouse can always be a challenge, but with Villanova’s edge in ranking and looking at Butler’s performance against similar teams, this is one the ‘Cats will need to steal.
Friday, January 20, at St. John’s
The Johnnies trail the ‘Cats by just a few spots in the KenPom rankings, checking in at No. 57. KenPom projects this game as a two-point loss for ‘Nova. There are two interesting notes regarding this game. One, St. John’s has only played four KenPom top 100 teams so far, going 2-2 in those games with the wins over No. 89 and No. 87 and the losses coming to No. 46 and No. 53. Of course, that loss to No. 53 happened to be Villanova, a game in which the Wildcats soundly defeated the Johnnies, 78-63. While the margin won’t matter, it will be key for the ‘Cats to nab this road win.
Saturday, February 18, at Providence
The Friars are ranked 63rd by KenPom, and this game is projected as a two-point loss for ‘Nova. Much like Butler, Providence presents a very difficult environment to play in. In terms of similar results, Providence has beaten No. 25 Marquette and No. 68 Seton Hall, but has lost to No. 38 TCU, No. 40 Miami and No. 74 Saint Louis. Providence lost it’s three most challenging games in the non-conference, with each of its other opponents ranked between 205-348 on KenPom. However, the Friars have gotten off to that great start in Big East play. Of the games listed here, this one is arguably the most difficult, but is one that could go a long way in determining Villanova’s postseason plans.
Tuesday, February 28, at Seton Hall
Finally, we get to Seton Hall in the second-to-last game of the regular season. The Pirates are ranked 68th in KenPom. This game is projected as a one-point loss for ‘Nova. Seton Hall looks to be on the opposite trajectory of Providence. The Pirates secured a couple nice non-conference wins over No. 27 Memphis and No. 23 Rutgers but are off to a dismal start in Big East play, falling to Providence, Xavier and Marquette to kick off the conference slate. ‘Nova and Seton Hall also have a common opponent in Oklahoma. Villanova defeated the Sooners 70-66 while Seton Hall lost 77-64.
By this point in the schedule, we’ll have a good idea of what Villanova’s prospects are for postseason play. But with a tough matchup with UConn looming to wrap up the regular season, a win in this game could take a lot of pressure off Villanova heading into the Big East Tournament. If ‘Nova is around where we expect it to be, the outcome of this game could be the difference between needing to beat UConn and/or win multiple games in the BET vs. feeling pretty good about your chances and having any BET wins simply serve as a bonus.
If Villanova could steal those four games while winning the remaining games it is expected to win, that suddenly changes the conference record to an impressive 15-5 and the overall record to 21-10. At 21-10 with wins over Oklahoma, Marquette, Xavier and Creighton and a top four finish in the Big East, it would be hard to imagine Villanova not getting an invite to the Big Dance.
Every game will be crucial, and some other key games that Villanova will have to handle its business in are projected wins at home against Marquette (Dec. 31), at home against Xavier (Jan. 7), at home against Providence (Jan. 29), at home against Seton Hall (Feb. 11) and at home against Creighton (Feb. 25). A slip-up in any of those games obviously changes the calculus.
One thing is certain, every single game the rest of the way is going to carry monumental importance. But if Villanova can avoid slip-ups in the games it will be expected to win, it very well could be these four games that determine whether Villanova is heading to the Big Dance, the NIT, or to no postseason play at all.
