The seeds have been determined, the bracket has been revealed, and now we are left to analyze and over-analyze as we await the start of the games on Thursday. The Wildcats were rewarded with the #1 overall seed, but when you look at the East Region, it’s fair to question whether the committee has rewarded or punished Villanova.

Red flags began to emerge before Nova Nation even had an opportunity to enjoy the announcement of being the top overall seed. With the announcement of the 8-9 game in the region, it immediately became clear the Nova’s path to the Final Four would be anything but a cakewalk. In particular, the eight seed Wisconsin Badgers, are a cause for concern.

Entering the season, many experts had the Badgers as a Final Four threat. I don’t want to get into too much detail about Wisconsin until that matchup materializes, but the Badgers are one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing just 61.1 points per game. They have senior leadership in the form of guard Bronson Koenig (14.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, two assists) and forward Nigel Hayes (13.5, 6.5, 2.8.) They also have stellar sophomore Ethan Happ, who is putting up 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. The Badgers were hurt by a late-season three-game losing streak that included a terrible loss to Ohio State, but Wisconsin seems grossly mis-seeded at 8 and provide an inordinately difficult second-round matchup for the supposed #1 seed.

While Wisconsin as an 8 seed seems to be a disservice, you can’t overlook the Badgers first round opponent, Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a very good offense, scoring nearly 80 points per game. They boast five players scoring in double figures, and another who is averaging over nine points per game. Tech shoots 49% from the floor and 40% from deep. While their defense and rebounding leave something to be desired, the offense makes them dangerous in a win-or-go-home situation. They have secured impressive wins over Miami, Duke, and Virginia.

Speaking of Virginia, they also find themselves in the East Region as the five seed. The Cavaliers opening game opponent presents a fascinating matchup. Virginia has built a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the country, and this season has been no different, as they enter the tournament with the top-ranked scoring defense in the nation at just 55.6 points per game. The Cavaliers will open the tournament against the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks, who own the 10th best scoring offense in the country, putting up 85.2 points per game. The game will provide an interesting contrast in styles, and Virginia should be on upset alert. But if they can dictate the pace of play and employ their stingy defense, a rematch with Villanova in the Sweet 16 isn’t out of the question.

To make that rematch a realilty, Virginia may have to go through #4 seed Florida. A nine-game winning streak near the end of the season had many mentioning the Gators as a potential Final Four sleeper, but a season-ending injury to leading rebounder John Egbunu combined with back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt has quieted that talk. Despite the injury to Egbunu, the Gators still have four players averaging 9.8+ points per game, and they are above average at both ends of the floor. The events of the last few weeks of the season have removed some of the luster from the Gators, but they could still be dangerous. That being said, Florida joins Virginia on upset alert when opening against East Tennessee State.

ETSU boasts a decent offense and a solid defense. The entire ETSU roster is made up of seniors and juniors, and experience can go a long way in NCAA Tournament games. They have seven players contributing at least 6.7 points per game, and are led by senior guard T.J. Cromer. Cromer is averaging 19.1 points this season.

SMU joins Wisconsin in the under-seeded category. The #6 seed in the East sits at 30-4 and won the AAC Title. They secured two wins over Cincinnati, but lack a signature win otherwise. But the Mustangs are stingy on the defensive end, giving up just 59.9 points per game. Offensively, they have five players putting up better than 9.9 points per game. Guard Shake Milton has been very good for the Mustangs, doing a bit of everything. He is averaging 13.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Sterling Brown joins Milton in the backcourt, chipping in 13.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and three assists per game. Both players are 6’6” and give the Mustangs great size in the backcourt. As good as those two players are, Semi Ojeleye is one of the best players in the tournament that you’ve never heard of. Ojeleye is averaging 18.9 points and 6.8 rebounds. He has the quickness to play on the perimeter and the strength to play on the inside. Offensively, he can score from all over the court, and his range makes him lethal in the pick-and-pop game. Ojeleye gives the Mustangs a versatile weapon at both ends of the floor, and a run to the Sweet 16 wouldn’t be a surprise.

By far the most intrigue in the East comes from the #2 seed, the Duke Blue Devils. Duke entered the season as one of the favorites to win the national championship. The hype made sense with the return of Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, and Amile Jefferson combined with a talented recruiting class. Injuries disrupted the Blue Devils for much of the regular season, but they started to put it together late. They became the first ACC team to win four games in four days to win the ACC Tournament Championship, and have begun to look like the team everyone expected them to be. From Nova’s perspective, it’s fair to question Duke being the #2 in their region. As the #1 overall seed, you would expect that they would be placed with the lowest ranked #2 seed. Instead they got Duke, is arguably the best of the #2 seeds, and certainly the hottest. Looking down the road, this sets up a potentially epic Elite 8 battle in Madison Square Garden between Duke and Villanova.

Again, you would think that the #1 overall seed would be placed in the easiest region. That is certainly not the case for Villanova. On paper, the West appears to be the least loaded region, though #1 seed Gonzaga may have trouble coming out of the West. The South looks like the toughest region, with #1 seed North Carolina, #2 Kentucky, #3 UCLA, and #4 Butler, who has made a habit of slaying giants this season. Wichita State is also grossly under-seeded at #10, and that could throw the South into disarray as well.

But the East is very tough in its own right. It has the defending national champions and #1 overall seed and the top two preseason favorites to win the title this year. It has two under-seeded teams in SMU and Wisconsin. Florida will be looking to regain the mojo of that nine-game win streak, while a team that plays defense like Virginia does can never be counted out in a win-or-go-home situation. The Wildcats have their work cut out for them if they want to make another run to the Final Four. Last year, the Cats navigated the toughest path in history to the national championship. This year won’t be much easier. Let’s see if history repeats itself.