It’s been almost two weeks since the full non-conference schedule was released, and now, as we await movement from Nova targets on the recruiting front, we’ll dig into the non-conference in an effort to get a feel for what to expect.
The “Warm-up” Games
Morgan State (11/6) and Quinnipiac (11/10)
No disrespect to Morgan State or Quinnipiac, but these two matchups essentially amount to warm-ups for the Wildcats, as they have no business losing one of these games. That being said, these two matchups do hold a bit more importance and intrigue than the usual early-season “push over” games that every elite program plays for two reasons.
First, and most importantly, is the fact that Villanova is dealing with a nearly unprecedented amount of turnover, with as many as five new faces that will be expected to contribute as well as a trio of sophomores that will be leaned upon to take significant steps in their progression. Villanova has gotten used to a remarkable amount of continuity over the past four to five seasons, and that continuity has not only played a major role in the Wildcats’ success but also brought great clarity to roles and rotations as a new season kicked off.
This season the ‘Cats won’t have that luxury, and these first two games will not only be a first look at a large group of new contributors but will also be fans’ first look at what the rotation will look like and how Jay Wright will look to deploy his weapons in 2018-19. We know Phil Booth and Eric Paschall will lead the way, but after that there is very little that is set in stone. These first two games will give us clues into how the team could look later in the season and who has earned trust from coach Wright.
The second is that a member of the Villanova family, Baker Dunleavy, is now the head coach at Quinnipiac. Dunleavy did an excellent job as an assistant under Wright and will now get a chance to lead his team against the school where he was both a player and an assistant coach.
Early Test
Michigan (11/14)
It won’t take long for the ‘Cats to get a test, as just three games into the season we get a rematch of last season’s national championship game when Villanova hosts Michigan. Like ‘Nova, the Wolverines lost several contributors from last year’s national runner-up team, but the return of Charles Matthews should help them remain a factor in the Big Ten.
There is some disagreement on where the Wolverines will start the season in terms of rankings, as some outlets have them squarely in their way too early to 25’s while others have them just missing the cut. If Michigan finds itself in the preseason rankings, this will be a top 25 matchup. Regardless, Michigan is expected to be in the mix come March, so this provides an opportunity for an early quality win for the Wildcats. Playing at home Villanova is likely to be favored in this game, but it will be the first true test for a relatively unproven group. It’s a great early-season measuring stick for the ‘Cats.
AdvoCare Invitational (11/17-11/25)
Villanova has made a habit of feasting at early-season tournaments during the recent run of success, and it will look to continue that trend this year at the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando.
The ‘Cats open with a non-bracket game at home against Furman before heading to Florida to get the tournament portion of the event under way, where they will kick off bracket play against Canisius on Thanksgiving Day (11/22).
A win against Canisius would earn Villanova a date with either Memphis or Oklahoma State on 11/23. Oklahoma State was arguably the best team to not make the NCAA Tournament a year ago but have some significant losses to address. Meanwhile Memphis has been generating a ton of buzz on the recruiting trail under new head coach Penny Hardaway and will be looking to immediately start building on the court.
Should ‘Nova get past either Oklahoma State or Memphis, it would find itself playing for yet another early-season tournament title. After what we saw last year at the Battle 4 Atlantis, we know it’s never safe to assume that the favorites will advance, but it would be equally as shocking as last year’s tournament in the Bahamas if LSU or Florida State doesn’t reach the AdvoCare final.
LSU brings the third-ranked recruiting class in the country on board for the 2018-19 season, anchored by a pair of five-star frontcourt players in Emmitt Williams and Nazreon Reid. The Tigers also return former five-star recruit Tremont Waters, who averaged 15.9 points, six assists and two steals as a freshman. LSU could very easily be a ranked opponent should they meet the Wildcats for the AdvoCare title.
The Seminoles return several key contributors from a team that reached the Elite 8, and they expect to be a factor in the ACC and return to the Big Dance. They are likely to start the season in the top 25 and should still be there come late November. Should the ‘Cats handle business and reach the AdvoCare final, an opportunity for a quality win should be waiting for them.
The Big 5
At La Salle (12/1, Palestra), Temple (12/5), St. Joe’s (12/8), at Penn (12/11)
‘Nova will return from Orlando and run four straight games through the Big 5. It’s no secret the rest of the Big 5 has been down, and there’s no reason to suspect that Villanova’s unprecedented dominance of the Philadelphia tradition won’t continue.
Temple is in a state of unrest as Fran Dunphy serves out a lame duck season as head coach and the Owls are considered an afterthought in the AAC. La Salle is generating little noise in the A10. Penn is coming off an Ivy League title and a respectable showing against Kansas in a 1-16 matchup in the NCAA tournament with hopes of a repeat in 2018-19, but ‘Nova will be heavily favored. St. Joe’s looks to be the biggest threat to steal a game from ‘Nova in the Big 5, but between the Hawks recent bad luck and Villanova’s Big 5 dominance, the ‘Cats will be expected to run the table again.
A Daunting Task
At Kansas (12/15)
After a rematch with their title game opponent in November, the ‘Cats continue the trend when they travel to Kansas to take on the Jayhawks after dispatching them in the Final Four last season. Villanova has found success against Kansas under Wright but getting a win in this round will be a tall task.
If Donte DiVincenzo and/or Omari Spellman had returned, the narrative around this game would be completely different. Instead, the young Wildcats will get their biggest test yet as they travel to an incredibly difficult place to play to take on what will likely be a top 3 team.
That’s not to say that Villanova should just head to Lawrence and lay down. Collin Gillespie and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree got a reasonable amount of big-game experience during Villanova’s run to the title last year, while Phil Booth and Eric Paschall, along with grad transfer Joe Cremo, have seen a lot of college basketball. Obviously, things can change once games are actually played, but this is the one game you currently look at on the non-conference schedule and can know the ‘Cats will be underdogs.
Regardless of the outcome, this is the type of game that can have a positive impact later in the season and even into future seasons as the young players get some experience in an elite test. In addition, this game provides some great exposure for the program and adds another tool to Wright’s recruiting toolbelt.
An Old Big East Reboot
UConn (12/22, Madison Square Garden)
The non-conference wraps up with a showdown from the old Big East as UConn and Villanova engage in the second installment of a three-game reboot of their rivalry. Last year ‘Nova traveled to Storrs and trounced the Huskies 81-61. New head coach Dan Hurley has injected some excitement into a program that has seen a precipitous fall since its 2014 title, but he faces a tough rebuild and the ‘Cats will be expected to round out the non-conference with a win.
Overview
The reaction to the non-conference schedule has been quite varied as ‘Nova fans weighed in on social media. Our take is that this represents a very good non-conference schedule that accomplishes exactly what it needs to.
Michigan and Kansas are two obvious quality opponents. Assuming Villanova, and the other top programs, handle business at the AdvoCare, Oklahoma State/Memphis offers an intriguing opponent while LSU/FSU offer another quality win opportunity. In an ideal world, a few of the programs in the Big 5 would get back to levels they have shown they can reach, but if St. Joe’s can stay healthy and put things together, that is a game that could look very solid come March. UConn is down but appears headed in the right direction while still boasting a recognizable brand.
All-in-all Wright and the athletic department have developed a solid recipe for putting together a balanced and productive non-conference schedule. Navigating the Big 5 requirements with a combination of early season tournaments, participating in the Gavitt games, and mixing in some high-profile matchups either through home-and-homes or series have given the ‘Cats the opportunity to get some quality wins without destroying themselves ahead of the always difficult Big East schedule, and 2018-19 is no different.
