With Villanova on a second break due to COVID-19 issues in the program, we have some more time than we usually would during the season. As such, we figured we could look at how the Wildcats have fared so far this season and what that could mean going forward. We’ll use the eye test, traditional statistics, and advanced metrics to get a picture of where Villanova has excelled, where it has struggled, and everything in between.
Let’s start with what the Wildcats have excelled at.
When assessing Villanova’s season and what has led it to an 8-1 record, it’s hard to not start with how well the ‘Cats have taken care of the ball. They are turning the ball over just 7.9 times per game and lead the country in turnover percentage, per KenPom.
Collin Gillespie has a nearly 5-1 assist to turnover ratio on the season, and the ‘Cats ability to take care of the ball is bolstering them on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the benefits are obvious. Villanova has had very few wasted possessions and has given itself more opportunities to score. As a result, the ‘Cats have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and average 80.1 points per game despite playing at one of the slowest paces in all of college basketball.
Defensively, fewer turnovers mean fewer extra opportunities for the opponent. Taking that a step further, fewer turnovers mean fewer live ball turnovers, which has allowed Villanova to force the opponent to play offense against a set defense instead of getting easy opportunities in transition or in early offense before the defense is completely back and set up.
The combination of elite offensive efficiency, very few missed opportunities, and very few chances for easy buckets for the opposition make it very difficult to beat Villanova and limiting turnovers has played a big role in those factors for the ‘Cats.
Balance has been another positive for the ‘Cats this season. Four Wildcats are averaging double figures and two more are averaging at least seven points per game. Beyond that, Eric Dixon and Brandon Slater each average just under four points per game, but each has had their moments offensively this season.
The ‘Cats have had three different high scorers this season (Gillespie, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore), but everyone in the rotation has had at least one solid offensive game and each has had their moments making big shots and big plays.
In addition to the scoring, all eight players who have played regularly are averaging at least two rebounds per game, and six Wildcats are averaging at least one assist per game. Those contributions, along with everyone buying in on the defensive end, has allowed ‘Nova to get off to its 8-1 start and helped it be such a tough team to defend.
Another area the ‘Cats have been good in is on the glass, especially the defensive glass. Overall, Villanova’s rebounding numbers don’t look that impressive. The ‘Cats are averaging 34.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 245th in the country. Generally, that wouldn’t be considered a strength, but we need some context.
First, Villanova has played some very good rebounding teams so far this season. Second, we mentioned that Villanova has been particularly good on the defensive glass. There, the Wildcats rank 21st in the country by allowing opponents to grab just 21.4% of their offensive rebound opportunities. That’s gone a long way in helping a defense that has struggled at times, and combined with the minimal turnovers from the ‘Cats, has made it incredibly difficult for opponents to get extra and/or easy opportunities.
Speaking of defense, that would be an area the ‘Cats will look for improvement. The defensive numbers aren’t disastrous, as ‘Nova ranks 39th in defensive efficiency per KenPom and 44th in that metric per Haslametrics. But those numbers are largely being bolstered by the lack of turnovers Villanova is committing and the fact that the Wildcats have been defending without fouling. Per Haslametrics, the ‘Cats surrender the fourth-fewest free throws per 100 possessions against the average opponent.
Early in the season, there was one glaring defensive issue: defending the dribble. The ‘Cats were getting shredded at the point of attack and giving up a ton of points in the paint as a result. The good news is that while that issue is probably still not where Jay Wright would like it to be, it’s also not as glaring as it was over the first few games of the season. There has been some improvement.
However, opponents are still shooting 51.7% from 2-point range and 36.2% from 3-point range, numbers that rank 221st and 275th respectively.
In addition, as good as Villanova has been taking care of the ball, it has been equally as bad at forcing turnovers. The ‘Cats rank 187th in opponent’s turnover percentage and 333rd in steal percentage, per KenPom. Similarly, they rank 337th in Haslametrics' “potential quick points” metric. This issue has been somewhat offset by how good Villanova is offensively, but the defense would be much more effective with an increase in forced turnovers.
The bottom line is that it’s easy to see why Villanova is 8-1. The Wildcats are doing a lot of things very well and a lot of the areas in need of improvement are offset by the things ‘Nova has excelled at. For now, the biggest concern is how Villanova will look after such a long layoff and how long it will take to get back into form. Hopefully, we’ll get to see how they respond sooner than later.
