The bracket has been revealed and we now know what Villanova’s path to a repeat could look like. While it’s called March Madness for a reason and there’s no way of knowing how things will shake out, we can at least make an educated guess at who will be in Villanova’s way along the tournament journey and we can look at what a path to the Elite 8 could look like. Here we’ll take a look, examining the most probable matchups along the way.
Saint Mary’s
One thing we know for certain: Villanova’s journey starts with Saint Mary’s. The Gaels play at the slowest pace in what is a pretty slow-playing region. Of the eight teams in Villanova’s section of the bracket, six play at a slower-than-average pace. The average pace ranking for teams in this region is 268.75 out of 353. The Gaels rely on methodical, efficient offense, ranking 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They have three players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers, and all three connect on better than 40 percent of those attempts.
We’ll have a deeper look at the Gaels heading into Thursday’s matchup.
Purdue/Old Dominion
Now we start to get into speculation mode, but it’s a pretty safe bet that Purdue would be the Round of 32 matchup. Obviously, if the unexpected happens, we’ll have all you need to know about Old Dominion, but for the sake of this exercise, we’ll focus on the Boilermakers.
Purdue ranks 10th in KenPom, checking in a #5 offensively and #32 defensively. The Boilermakers earned a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, but enter the tournament losing two of three, with both of those losses coming against Minnesota. They are heavily reliant on Carsen Edwards, which makes them susceptible if a team can find a way to limit him. Looking at the other 3 seeds, Purdue might be the most favorable matchup for the ‘Cats.
Tennessee/Cincinnati/Iowa/Colgate
Here we really start to test the Madness by trying to speculate, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t Tennessee or Cincinnati waiting for Villanova with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line should the ‘Cats advance that far.
Cincy/Iowa presents a classic offense vs. defense matchup. The Hawkeyes average 78.3 points per game while Cincy only allows 62.4. Iowa owns a win over Michigan but was also blown out by the Wolverines in the Big Ten tournament. The Hawkeyes are just 2-6 in their last eight games.
After stumbling at the end of the regular season, Cincy rebounded to win the AAC tournament. The Bearcats hold just one win over a ranked opponent, in the AAC title game against Houston, but their defense combined with the current form of the teams should get them past Iowa.
Tennessee spent time this season as the #1 team in the country and are the favorites to get to the regional final. The Vols beat Kentucky twice this season and also beat Gonzaga. They rank third in offensive efficiency and have five players averaging double figures. They possess incredible toughness and would be a daunting opponent.
Overview
First and foremost, this is obviously all contingent on Villanova handling its own business. Saint Mary’s won’t be a pushover but travel and the crowd should give the ‘Cats an edge.
Should they get past Saint Mary’s and get the expected matchup with Purdue, they will have their hands full, but it’s not an impossible task.
The most likely Sweet 16 matchups, Tennessee or Cincinnati, present unique challenges, but the good news is it’s not something the ‘Cats won’t have to worry about until next week and they would have a few extra days to prepare.
It’s worth noting that ‘Nova went 8-3 against teams that played at a slower-than-average pace this season, with two of those losses coming early in the season in the back-to-back defeats to Michigan and Furman, when the ‘Cats were still finding their way. They are comfortable playing in slow, grinding games and that could be to their advantage in their region.
The ‘Cats enter this tournament with a different feel than the last few years. The expectations are lower, but so too is the pressure. If they play near their ceiling, they could make some noise. If they play near their floor, it could be a short trip.
