Being a senior point guard at Villanova is usually a pretty good position to be in, and that is exactly where Collin Gillespie will find himself in 2020-21.
Gillespie will head a squad with high expectations, and the combination of his skills, experience, and situation has many expecting him to be among the best players in the Big East. We echo those sentiments.
The former under the radar recruit, whose offer from and ultimate commitment to Villanova was somewhat of a surprise at the time, has posted steady growth on the Main Line and has seen a firm increase in his counting stats year-over-year. After contributing 4.3 points, 1.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists as a role player on the 2018 national championship team, Gillespie took that experience and the lessons learned under Jalen Brunson and blossomed in an expanded role as a sophomore to the tune of 10.9 points, 2.8 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals. With the expanded responsibilities, his efficiency took an expected hit, but it wasn’t a catastrophic one. His field goal percentage dropped from 45.2 to 40.9 and his three-point percentage fell from 39.4 to 37.9. Again, a completely manageable drop that is to be expected when a player’s usage more than doubles.
As a junior last season, Gillespie served as the de facto senior point guard as the Wildcats didn’t have a single scholarship senior in the rotation. There are two major takeaways from that fact. First, what he was able to accomplish, both statistically and in leading ‘Nova to a 24-7 record, is quite impressive considering the unusual roster makeup. Second, those circumstances should make his 2019-20 numbers a fairly accurate baseline for trying to predict what he will do in 2020-21.
In 2019-20, Gillespie averaged 15.1 points, nearly doubled his assist numbers to 4.5 per game, and added 3.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals. Perhaps more importantly, the lack of seniors on the roster served to prepare Gillespie for the role he will take on in 2020-21.
Given the circumstances, those 2019-20 numbers should serve as an accurate floor for what to expect from Gillespie in 2020-21. The Wildcats have a big hole to fill with the departure of Saddiq Bey. How Jay Wright and Co. look to fill that hole will have an impact on Gillespie’s statistical ceiling. Gillespie will have the ball in his hands and will be making decisions and will almost certainly absorb some of the lost usage in Bey’s absence. However, there is a handful of talented, hungry juniors and sophomores who will be looking to stake their claim to those minutes and shots as well. Last season, Cole Swider showed flashes of what caught Wright’s eye as a recruit, and fellow junior Brandon Slater perhaps best matches Bey’s physical profile, although his offense would need to take a step forward for him to take a significant amount of Bey’s usage. Meanwhile, Justin Moore had a stellar freshman season for the ‘Cats, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl decided to return to ‘Nova after flirting with the NBA, and Bryan Antoine will be hungry to bounce back from an injury-derailed freshman campaign. Finally, redshirt freshman Eric Dixon and transfer Caleb Daniels will be looking to contribute as well.
As such, it is difficult to predict what kind of jump in numbers Gillespie may see as a senior. What we do know is that he will be working with a ton of experience and will have plenty of options for distributing the ball. So regardless of whether Gillespie decides to take a larger chunk of the offensive usage for himself or embraces more of a facilitating role, we can be confident that he will make the right decisions and that the Wildcats should thrive.
It’s tempting to look to another recent Villanova senior point guard in Ryan Arcidiacono for clues regarding what to expect from Gillespie, but the paths of the two players haven’t really been linear. Arch played a ton as a freshman and actually saw his minutes decrease ever so slightly during his remaining three years at Nova. Arch also saw his field goal attempts drop from 9.1 as a freshman to 8.0 as a sophomore and 7.7 as a junior before rebounding to 9.3 as a senior. Conversely, Gillespie attempted 2.9 field goals per game as a freshman, 8.0 as a sophomore, and 12.3 as a junior. Gillespie also had better assist and rebounding numbers as a junior than Arch did, so we can’t just look at Arcidiacono’s numbers and confidently project Gillespie’s senior numbers based on that.
The safest way to project Gillespie’s 2020-21 numbers is to use his 2019-20 numbers as a floor.
Ultimately, Gillespie’s senior season won’t be judged by his numbers anyway. His season will be measured by how far he can lead the ‘Cats in March. The importance of his experience can’t be understated in that regard and will be one of the biggest reasons Villanova will enter the season with such high hopes and why Gillespie should be one of the best players in the Big East.
