While the three seniors will anchor the Villanova rotation in 2020-21, the rest of the roster is full of intriguing players that will have an extra opportunity with the departure of Saddiq Bey. We recently looked at Cole Swider and today we’ll examine Brandon Slater.
Slater is interesting for a couple of reasons. One, physically Slater is arguably the best comparison for Bey. He has a long way to go offensively to even approach Bey’s level, but his size is very similar and Slater may be a bit more athletic than Bey is. While Slater’s lack of offensive production limits our ability to slot him in as a Bey replacement, it also creates opportunity. Even a marginal offensive improvement and increase in numbers would mark a significant jump for Slater and would have an important impact on the court.
Slater’s traditional numbers are difficult to evaluate due to limited opportunity and because he was held back by some poor shooting numbers. We’ll take a look and see what we can extract, and then we’ll look at some advanced numbers that help clarify the picture and can give us some clues as to what we can expect from Slater going forward.
As a freshman, Slater played just 3.5 minutes per game. He put up just 0.3 points, 0.6 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.1 steals and 0.2 blocks per game and shot a dismal 22% from the field (on only nine attempts) and was 0-6 from three.
As a sophomore, Slater saw 11.6 minutes per game and posted modest increases almost across the board: 1.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.2 blocks. His field goal percentage improved to 38% (53 attempts) and he connected on three 3-pointers but shot just 15% from long-range.
Again, in such limited minutes and being way down the list of offensive threats, it’s hard to put a lot of stock in those numbers. However, the improvements in rebounds and assists stand out a bit. In addition, Slater had a positive defensive impact that goes beyond counting stats like steals and blocks.
Let’s start our look at the advanced numbers with those rebounding and assist numbers before digging into the defense. Slater’s rebound percentage actually dropped a bit from his freshman to his sophomore seasons, from 10.3% to 6.5%. The most interesting takeaway from the rebounding numbers is the 13.7 offensive rebound percentage Slater posted as a freshman. Even though that number fell as a sophomore, his rebounds per game still improved and, more importantly, the offensive glass is a great way for Slater to impact the offensive end and to improve his overall offensive production.
Slater saw a solid increase in his assist percentage, from 6.8% as a freshman to 11% as a sophomore. Here too is a great opportunity for him to impact the game offensively outside of scoring the basketball. As we’ve mentioned throughout this series, Villanova will have no lack of offensive threats on the court at any given time so simply executing the offense and continuing to move the ball at the level we’ve come to expect from Jay Wright teams should allow the offense to thrive. It’s reasonable to believe Slater can play an important role in making sure that happens.
As a freshman, Slater posted a block percentage of 6.9%. That number fell to 2.0% as a sophomore, but it demonstrates Slater’s ability to challenge and disrupt shots. More importantly, despite the limited minutes as a freshman, Slater posted a defensive box plus/minus of 1.1 and that number improved to 3.4 as a sophomore. Similarly, he posted 0.1 defensive win shares as a freshman and 0.5 defensive win shares last season. That change, along with the slight offensive improvement, allowed Slater’s overall box plus/minus to improve from -6.4 to 1.3. The bottom line is that Slater has had a positive defensive impact when he’s been on the court.
It’s unlikely Slater becomes a double-figure scorer in 2020-21, and he doesn’t need to for Villanova to be successful. What is likely is an increase in minutes as he should have a good grasp of what the Wildcats want to do at each end of the court. If he can continue to have a positive impact on the defensive end, find a way to be a factor on the glass (particularly on the offensive glass) and make smart reads/passes in the offense it will be a more than successful season for Slater and will aid the Wildcats in achieving their lofty goals. We haven’t really used this series to outright predict stats, but something along the lines of six points, four rebounds, two assists and a steal per game would be more than enough.
Slater can be exactly the kind of key role player that successful teams need and his size and athleticism are a benefit in regards to the way the game is now being played. He’s been quietly learning the system and what is expected of a Villanova basketball player and with an increased opportunity he will be in position to make an important impact for the ‘Cats this season.